progress is not the elimination of struggle, but rather a change in its terms’ - Aneurin Bevan

the road-runner effect

The biggest electoral grouping is anti-Tory. People who would otherwise stay home, or vote for parties as varied as the Lib-Dems, UKIP, the Greens, or the BNP, will be wondering what will happen if the Tories are in office again - just as we are getting out of what was almost a slide into deep and long recession of the kind not seen since the 1930s.

Like many Labour voters, this wider grouping won't respond to the argument that things have got better if phrased like that, because there are many things worrying people - their job or lack of one, the cost of living, etc.

These people will want to know that Labour will be on their side, not on the side of the privileged few like the Tories are. That's why the campaign slogan, a future fair for all, should be effective in making the choice clear on election day.

Financial experts have said that after the British government nationalised banks to stop them going under, the worst ravages of the crisis in financial markets came to a stop. Governments around the world knew that the best approach was to intervene, not let the chaos unfold.

The Tories have made a great deal about the national debt and cutting it. But they are committed to expensive privatisation policies in education and also reducing revenue by giving immediate tax breaks their wealthy backers. And people know who will pay the most from the immediate cuts the Tories are proposing.

So it is not surprising that the latest YouGov poll for Channel 4 News shows that in the 60 constituencies the Tories need to win from Labour to secure an over-all majority in parliament, their lead in the polls has fallen to 2%:
The poll shows the gap between the two main parties has narrowed to its closest since shortly after Gordon Brown became prime minster in the autumn of 2007. 39 per cent of voters said they would vote Conservative and 37 per cent said they would vote Labour. In February last year, when we last did a poll in these marginal seats, the Tories had a seven point lead. Now it is just two points, a swing of 2.5 per cent to Labour.
Left Foot Forward's analysis of 37 polls this year show that if  trends continue, there could be a Labour victory....

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